On Monday night, the Brazilian Stock Exchange ( B3 ) announced the exclusion of the shares of the airline Gol from its Ibovespa index , in addition to nine other indices . This decision came after the company filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States by filing a " Chapter 11 of the United States Code " application with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.
What was the loss in value of the company's shares?
Image 1: Devaluation of the company's shares over time.
Throughout the trading session on B3 this Monday, Gol shares suffered a significant drop of 33.11% on B3, reaching the value of R$3.96. The bearish movement led to multiple trading halts throughout the day.
Analyzing some of the company's financial data to look for some answers.
When analyzing the company's financial data , we observed that its revenue over the years was very variable and unpredictable, resulting in losses , especially after the pandemic. This led the company to suffer losses for several years. The situation caused the company to take on emergency debt to deal with the problems, increasing its financial costs in a period of high interest rates in the market.
Image 2: Losses of the company GOLL4 in recent years.
Another relevant aspect that signaled the need for capital from external sources, considering the limitation of affected sales , was the shareholding dilution without the corresponding expansion in new businesses . In other words, the capital from new share issues was, apparently, mostly being directed by the company to finance its operations .
Image 3: Capital increase / shareholding dilution news.
Is it possible to predict difficulties in a company?
I use a statistical system to calculate the probability of insolvency , where data such as financing expenses , increase in debt in relation to cash position , composition of debt in relation to market value are considered, and since the beginning of the pandemic, the company , through my analysis, it was at a delicate moment, foreseeing possible problems . However, we know that a company with as much reputation as Gol Linhas Aéreas does not have many difficulties in raising new funds , whether through debt or by issuing new shares, to resolve the cash flow problem, while gaining time to find solutions.
Image 4: Default risk prediction system.
The main complication lies in the fact that, given the considerable drop in the value of shares , shareholding dilution becomes less favorable in this period of low prices. This imposes on the company the need to seek alternatives to renegotiate its debts, and this is precisely what Gol ( GOLL4 ) is committed to achieving, after having requested judicial recovery in the United States, filing a " Chapter 11" request.
If you need a statistical study related to credit risks , analysis of possible bankruptcies, both to make investments in debentures and to become a shareholder in a company, contact Wagner Germia .
Cover Photo by Gabriel Melo
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