On Tuesdays, I traditionally play football with some friends, and yesterday we had our own holiday party. A moment of relaxation, with lots of lively conversation, and that exquisite barbecue that only Dr. Alcione knows how to make. It's in these moments, between a slice of Roast beef and a cramp in my left thigh, that I get the hottest market information .

Field research

Through the Tuesday group, I discovered that sales of inputs to the industry fell by 20% . I discovered that the medical offices of my fellow doctors are not very busy. I discovered that real estate sales had a reduction in the last month . I discovered that my fellow retailers ' Black Friday sales were not good and that the price of beef cattle had dropped a lot, according to another fellow farmer. Anyway, I can categorically say that Tuesday's "field" football is the best "field" research I can obtain.

Today the preview of Brazilian GDP , measured by IBC-Br, was released, which fell 0.6% in the month of October. The data, in fact, came below market expectations , which expected a drop of 0.2%. This demonstrates that, to contain inflation , economic activity had to reduce. And here I come with a reflection: we noticed that the Ibovespa broke 130 thousand points , but whenever companies increase in value, there is an expectation that their sales and profits will be greater. Where will company sales come from when economic activities are more contained? I can't find an answer.

S&P raises Brazil's credit rating

Also yesterday, we had S&P raising Brazil's credit rating from BB- to BB, with expectations of stability. S&P clearly made this decision due to the approval of the basic text of the tax reform in Brazil. If Brazil's economic trajectory continues to rise, and we implement a well-adjusted fiscal policy , we will be able to reach investment grade in the future. This will be beneficial to the country as many global investment funds can only invest in countries with investment grade credit ratings .

What to Expect in 2024?

The year 2024 is approaching, and we have some surprisinglypositive expectations for the country . In the sphere of investments , I believe that 2024 will be a year of transition for many portfolios , as we will have fixed income interest rates in Brazil and the United States falling , combined with improvements in inflation . However, I understand that companies may struggle to deliver their sales and business dynamics. Having said that, I realize that I have something valuable that can provide me with very rich information and that allows me to act in advance of the market , and this advantage of mine has a name: my Tuesday football group.

If you need help from an analyst in your investment fund, contact Wagner Geremia.

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