Some Brazilians face the routine act of filling up their cars and complain about high fuel prices.
Could it be that, if they became partners of Petrobras , would they still continue to complain about the rise in fuel prices ?
The rise in fuel prices generates divergent impacts for different groups. For investors in the oil sector , it represents positive news, while for consumers, it is bad news.
With this in mind, let's check to what extent an increase in the price of oil on the intraday (very short term) affects the value of shares.
To begin our study, I will use price data from Petrobras' ADRs , since they are listed in dollars, to eliminate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the company's impact.
Carrying out a small statistical test we see that the independent variable , which in this case is the price of oil , is not statistically relevant to the price variation within a day since its action range has zero. Even if the variable were statistically relevant, it would only explain 5% of the movement in the price of Petrobras' ADRs.
What conclusions can we draw?
The result was surprising to me, as I have been following and making predictions about the relationship between the price of a barrel of oil and the value of Petrobras shares in the long term , and the results are practically opposite to what I observed in this test. This highlights the importance not only of the observed variables, but also of the analyzed time interval . Another conclusion I can infer is that distinct events have a more significant impact on stock prices in the short term than just projections of the future price of a barrel of oil . Therefore, for those involved in day trading based exclusively on oil prices , the chances of success may not be so favorable.
Follow me in this series of posts, where we will try to simulate different scenarios in an attempt to estimate our price forecast for Petrobras.