Estatística Aplicada ao Mundo dos Negócios: O Início da Paixão.

My first experience with statistics applied to the business world was when I was 14 years old. I was on vacation with my family on a beach in Santa Catarina and very close to the house where we were staying there was an amusement park. We used to go to the park as a family. But while they focused on finding the ferris wheel. I was more interested in another wheel: the game of roulette. In this game, which is more simplified than the original version, the bettor can only bet on black or white. If the bettor doesn't get the color right, he loses everything , and if he gets the color right, he doubles the value. At 14 years old, I was mesmerized by the possibility of doubling the money I had in my pocket . I remember watching the roulette wheel spin all night, while my family had fun at other attractions in the park. I came home, and all I could think about was how I could use my limited knowledge of statistics to make money .

The next day, there I was, ready to put my infallible plan into action : I would wait until the roulette wheel drew the same color 3 times in a row, and then place my bet on the opposite color. What is the rationale behind? The probability of the same color appearing 4 times in a row was less than 7%.

I waited patiently and, at the opportune moment, bet R$10. The result was: double my money . I waited a few more moments, and again another opportunity arose; I deposited another R$10 and, voilà, I pocketed another R$10. Everything went according to my plan, until a park supervisor approached and informed me that the game was restricted to people over 18 years old.

I returned home with an extra R$20, a smile on my face and the conviction that one day I would specialize in mathematics . The fact is that years later I achieved this specialization and discovered that my winnings were realized with the same chance as any other player, 50% . But, in fact, this experience served to bring me closer to my passion: statistics applied to the business world .

For me, there has never been a more interesting period than today to be engaged in the area of ​​statistics , with the advent and creation of Big Data , through Business Intelligence , migrating to Predictive Statistics , entering the area of ​​Machine Learning and, more recently , Artificial Intelligence . All of them are rooted in what marketing people call Advanced Statistics , which are nothing more than traditional statistical methods organized in a way that software can manage itself.

The field is very vast, for sure. About me? I'm still that kid trying to double the money he has in his pocket , using what my teachers taught me.

Do you want to know more about statistics applied to the market?

Contact Wagner Geremia.

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