Talking about Petrobras' profitability in the midst of geopolitical events is a huge challenge. We know that oil prices are particularly sensitive to events in the Middle East , due to the region being an important oil producer and exporter. Conflicts, threats of blockades or disruptions to oil transport routes could lead to a reduction in the global supply of this important commodity . This, in turn, could result in increases in crude oil prices on international markets . We have seen this in the past, where an escalation in tensions in the region can lead to price spikes.
It is already difficult to talk about profitability in non-state oil companies; What to expect from a state-owned company?
For state oil companies, such as Petrobras , which depend on oil exports and fluctuations in international market prices, these variations can have significant impacts. On the one hand, an increase in oil prices could increase Petrobras ' revenue, boosting its profits and, consequently, benefiting its shareholders. However, this can also be accompanied by higher costs, including domestic fuel price subsidies, in times of strong inflationary pressure, which can reduce the company's profit margin . So, Unpredictable events, such as government policy decisions, can have the opposite effect.
Good news for minority shareholders: The government is counting on dividends to improve its revenue.
It is known that the federal government holds more than 50% of the shares with voting rights , giving the majority shareholder a prominent position in the life of the minority shareholder. However, in recent years the government has had a glimpse of how beneficial it is to earn income beyond tax collection , and this refers to dividends . The lesson learned by the government is that SOEs, if well managed, can generate extra income for the government, which in turn benefits not only the government but also minority shareholders.
Price pressures have their correlation inverted in certain periods.
Therefore, in a company whose fuel pricing policy is aimed at meeting the needs of society, it is to be expected that in years of low inflationary pressure, the company's profit will suffer a positive impact if there is an increase in prices. In years of high inflation , however, the impact on the company's profit becomes uncertain as the passing on of costs to the consumer may have its dynamics compromised.
Discover the fair price of Petrobras with the help of the analyst.